Driverless cars will transform transportation infrastructure, land use planning

Photo courtesy of Carnegie Mellon University.

When technological advances add up to cars no longer needing a driver, the impacts on transportation and land use planning could rein in the ballooning roadway system and sprawl. Those are some of the conclusions reached by Carnegie Mellon University researchers after a yearlong analysis of autonomous and connected vehicles' impact on the Pennsylvania highway system. The researchers also have some guidance for counties and local governments to consider when planning long- and short-term transportation infrastructure improvements. "Travel [may] become so much more efficient that we don't need to add extra lanes to roads at some point," said Allen Biehler, co-author of the study and himself a former Pennsylvania secretary of transportation. "On the other hand, in the meantime, do we set aside a lane for the cars that are autonomous, while the technology spreads?" He added that counties will have the ability to affect the results by identifying potential impact areas and incentivizing something that is to their advantage in maintaining the transportation system.

The interior of Carnegie Mellon University's autonomous car includes displays that give passengers a heavily simplified look at what factors are influencing how the car navigates.

How Is This Happening? Fully self-driving autonomous cars allow the driver to cede control to a system of sensors and cameras, while connected vehicles can send and receive information from sources including short-range transmitters and cell towers. The CMU study assumes universal adoption of autonomous and connected automobiles by 2040, though it could come much sooner, depending on private sector advances and the public's adoption of the technology. "Virtually every major auto manufacturer is working on some sort of autonomous or connected car," Biehler said. "And technology companies are getting in on it Google's car is out there gathering information with [sensors] that's going to make the kind of travel possible. A day before Biehler spoke to County News, an autonomous car built by Audi left on a 3,500 mile cross-country trip. "That's going to be the big jump, when you start having cars that can drive themselves from the outset," said Chris Hendrickson, a co-author of the CMU study and director of university's Traffic 21 Institute. "That will be when transportation systems can realize the full efficiencies of what this technology has to offer. I predict we'll first see it in parking lots, where cars park themselves." In the meantime, consumers will have a chance to test out and adapt to incremental advances in autonomous and connected vehicle technology. "The top-of-the-line vehicles include options like adaptive cruise control, where the car will stay in its lane and slow down when the car in front of it slows," he said. "It will set you back $120,000, but these are out on the market." What Counties Can Do Those incremental advances in technology will diffuse the cost of infrastructure upgrades counties and other local governments will need to make to accommodate these vehicles. Short-range communications systems in traffic signals can communicate to connected cars, and the city of Pittsburgh has installed those transmitters at 40 intersections, with which CMU's autonomous vehicle has interacted. The vehicle can learn what color the light is and when the light will change. "That kind of connectivity is something counties can implement, so they're ready," Hendrickson said. "If you make it a part of routine equipment improvement when you're switching out the signal controller it's cheap." Biehler sees big gains for transit efficiency as buses integrate equipment to interact with traffic signals. "If they can communicate with traffic lights and get preferential treatment, that can help keep buses on schedule and make them more attractive to potential riders," he said. "Keeping ridership up will help keep the transit agencies solvent and keep more cars off the roads." As buses become autonomous, Biehler said a decreased need for drivers can help cut labor costs, too. In addition to accommodating the technology, Hendrickson suggested counties begin adopting it as they replace their vehicles. "Adding on rear-view cameras will just be a good safety move, regardless of where those advances are ultimately heading," he said. "Advances like that aren't just a step in that direction, they're useful." Hendrickson warned against investment in new permanent message boards for roadways, given their limited capacity to communicate compared to what smartphones already offer. So far, four states and the District of Columbia have passed laws regarding autonomous vehicle testing and their safety on public roads. Florida's legislation allows for operation of autonomous vehicles on public roads, providing the vehicle meets state auto standards and requires some kind of visual indication when it is operating in its autonomous mode. Last year, Johnson County, Iowa passed a resolution supporting autonomous vehicle technology and a willingness to work with local jurisdictions in that effort, the first county in the country to do so. "We haven't committed to anything, but we're hoping to encourage testing and development," said Andy Johnson, executive assistant to the Board of Supervisors. "We're letting Iowa City Area Development give us some direction on how to handle this." Mark Nolte, ICAD's president, said the key for local governments is to not be overly prescriptive, because the current laws allow autonomous cars to be driven on public roads, but require that they be properly insured. Prescriptive regulations, he argued, will stifle development. "There's nothing that requires that a carbon-based life form be behind the wheel of a car," he said. "They're legal to drive on the roads, just like unmanned drones are legal until someone makes them illegal." As for Johnson County's resolution, "Proclamations (like that) let the public know areas are open to business and eager for development," he said. "This is coming, this will be the next transformative technology that will touch our lives, just like the Internet and smartphones did before it. Some say it's right around the corner, others say it's 20 years away."